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Old 04-27-2014, 09:28 AM   #368
randomscooter
Native Earthling
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
Quote:
Originally Posted by cityboy View Post
No, but it was due to El Nino. We are due for another one soon so wait for Climatologists to shout "We told you". Even though they told the Skeptics that you can't start in 1998 because of El Nino. I'm sure they'll quickly "forget" that rule.

To be fair we need to look at the next 17 years for the validation process. As I said its best 2 out of 3, winner take all.
El Nino? Okay, let me explain.

First, it is not physically possible to have a 0.2 degree instantaneous step change in temperature. Any methodology (if you can call it that) that allows for step changes in continuously variable functions (such as temperature change) is invalid. The methodology used to "fit" these curves to the data is scientifically/mathematically unsound.

Even if the authors of this graph had avoided the above obvious criticism by putting a very steep (but non-vertical) line between the other two lines, the phenomenon could not be explained by El Nino. Even if an El Nino effect could raise the temperature by 0.2 degrees over a short period of time, it's effects would be temporary. The temperature would settle back down to where it was before the El Nino (From looking at the graph I would guess that the spike in the 97-98 timeframe was caused by an El Nino). If that were not the case then each successive El Nino would ratchet up the temperature by some value (such as 0.2 degrees), then the temperature would hold, then the next El Nino would ratchet the temperature up again, etc, etc. THAT my friend would be a very serious problem. Fortunately the real world doesn't work that way. How many El Ninos were there from 1997 to 2010? Why didn't they ratchet up the temperature like the one in 1997 supposedly did? Ain't gonna happen.

Please read this for a better understanding of El Ninos.

One fact pulled from the above:
Quote:
Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years.[5] The average period length is five years.
Cityboy, please, please take a minute to digest the above. Then ask yourself why your source would publish invalid information.
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Last edited by randomscooter; 04-27-2014 at 09:40 AM..
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