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Old 04-27-2014, 04:05 PM   #374
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
Originally Posted by randomscooter View Post
El Nino? Okay, let me explain.

First, it is not physically possible to have a 0.2 degree instantaneous step change in temperature. Any methodology (if you can call it that) that allows for step changes in continuously variable functions (such as temperature change) is invalid. The methodology used to "fit" these curves to the data is scientifically/mathematically unsound.

Even if the authors of this graph had avoided the above obvious criticism by putting a very steep (but non-vertical) line between the other two lines, the phenomenon could not be explained by El Nino. Even if an El Nino effect could raise the temperature by 0.2 degrees over a short period of time, it's effects would be temporary. The temperature would settle back down to where it was before the El Nino (From looking at the graph I would guess that the spike in the 97-98 timeframe was caused by an El Nino). If that were not the case then each successive El Nino would ratchet up the temperature by some value (such as 0.2 degrees), then the temperature would hold, then the next El Nino would ratchet the temperature up again, etc, etc. THAT my friend would be a very serious problem. Fortunately the real world doesn't work that way. How many El Ninos were there from 1997 to 2010? Why didn't they ratchet up the temperature like the one in 1997 supposedly did? Ain't gonna happen.

Please read this for a better understanding of El Ninos.

One fact pulled from the above:

Cityboy, please, please take a minute to digest the above. Then ask yourself why your source would publish invalid information.
randomscooter I suggest you look and try to understand the graph first before accusing them of publishing invalid data. Here is a hint. The entire timespan was segmented into two parts and OFFCENTERED for illustration purposes. You'll notice that a regression line was fit to each segment. You can easily see what they did by clicking on the link at the bottom. Its a neat little program.

And since you distrust them why don't you use their program to double check them or better yet use another dataset for example Hadcrut 3 or 4.

Why do you and vtflyfish deny that there is a pause since 1997. Its common knowledge and even the IPCC acknowledges it.
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