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  • #31
    Originally posted by Professor Hobbit View Post
    The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum took 20,000 years to change the climate by 6 degrees. Climate scientists are predicting that level of change in a century or two.

    20,000 years is enough time for entire biomes to shift thousands of miles. It's enough time for plant species to spread into new areas and be extirpated from other areas. And even then many species went extinct (although not enough to call it a true mass extinction). It's slow enough for new species to evolve to adapt to new niches.

    A few decades, or centuries even, (which is what we're dealing with now) is not nearly enough time for those very slow range shifts and evolutionary adaptations to occur.
    (I added the emphasis)

    I posted that article in regards to the massive extinctions involved in that epic climate change event.

    Regardless, if you [cherry pick] extrapolate a tiny piece of data a.k.a. the weather change from 1979-2012 and apply it forward you will get absurd predictions.

    Being relatively inexperienced at science perhaps this case is different but it reminds me of the dot.com bubble. Sure it's high priced base on p/e or p/s (or the famous p/ebitda) but if you extrapolate revenue growth over the last 10 years and apply it forward 100 years, the stock is cheap.
    A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in

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    • #32
      The dot.com reference is a good hint as to what's really going on here. Here's another hint: "Follow the money."

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      • #33
        I agree that the choice of 1979-2012 seems somewhat arbitrary, but they use 1979 because that's when NOAA satellites first began carrying climate observation instruments that could measure things like ice extent and thickness, as well as atmospheric temperatures on a global scale. It's not cherry picking, it's actually an attempt to use as much data as there is available.

        Here's another pretty comprehensive page with lots of nifty data.
        He found himself wondering at times, especially in the autumn, about the wild lands, and strange visions of mountains that he had never seen came into his dreams.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by TCD View Post
          The dot.com reference is a good hint as to what's really going on here. Here's another hint: "Follow the money."
          When all is said and done this will rival the Tulip mania.

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          • #35
            Global warming - the extremely inexact {cough,cough}"science":

            Ahh............Wilderness.......

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            • #36
              As I see it on one side you have fossil fuels and on the other side you have alternative energy sources.

              With fossil fuels you get mercury, acid rain, pit mining, mountain topping, water pollution, air pollution, etc.

              On the other side you have some resource extraction issues.

              Look at those two lists. If you don't see a problem with our current energy supply I don't know what to say.


              Also it is important to note that the early sea ice extent means nearly nothing, because much of the ice in the Arctic is thousands of years old and very thick, compared to the thin year old ice. Ice volume is a much more accurate measure of ice cap health.


              This totally ignores the FACT that we are looking at faster sea level rise, temperature rise, and ice withdraw than any measurable time in the history of Earth. Its very hard to realize the length of geologic time versus the length of human time. to would take 1000s generations to live from the beginning to the end of other "sudden" geologic events (ie mass extinctions) and were seeing them in 10.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Paleofreak View Post
                This totally ignores the FACT that we are looking at faster sea level rise, temperature rise, and ice withdraw than any measurable time in the history of Earth. Its very hard to realize the length of geologic time versus the length of human time. to would take 1000s generations to live from the beginning to the end of other "sudden" geologic events (ie mass extinctions) and were seeing them in 10.
                While I don't disagree with what your first part of the post (although some stuff may have been left out on the alternative energy side)...

                How is this FACT?

                As far as I know, we have NO specific data with any certainty that can prove this 'sudden' change in temperature has not happened hundreds, if not thousands of times before.

                Our certainty for anything in the past in on orders of thousands of years usually, maybe hundreds in some cases. We are talking about a total span of recorded data of about 120 years. How, in any way, can we be sure about this trend? There is insufficient data and as I will reiterate, NO MODEL, which can predict weather or climate change on any scale with any deal of precision.

                It isn't the fault of science. Science only acts to come up with models or explanations based on observation. The observation period is too short for any real TRUTH to be drawn about what will happen in the next 120 years.

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                • #38
                  I'm done arguing about it - it won't change anything because the REAL money-grubbers in the fossil-fuel industry are so entrenched that they own our government.

                  But I'll say this - I'm glad I got to see some of this country's greatest national treasures before "the job creators" screw it all up for short-term profit - Glacier while there are still glaciers and the Grand Canyon before mining interests win their sought-after concessions, as but two examples.
                  I'm also glad I don't have kids, because I won't be the one explaining why we saw all this destruction coming and not only did nothing, we shouted-down, marginalized, and tried to destroy the reputations of the scientists who tried to warn us.
                  We've had a cooler-than-normal summer here in Kentucky, and that's great, but I'll bet my next paycheck that come December 31st 2013 will go down as another one of the warmer years on record, globally.

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                  • #39
                    I hear ya, whenever I have to explain to my daughter how The "Dinos" died I blame global warming scientists for not warning them soon enough.

                    Isn't the mining in the Grand Canyon for uranium?

                    While I would love to live without energy I don't see how we can all become Amish, but I certainly respect those that do.

                    Any solution needs to balance a lot of factors, with conservation being the key. Right now natural gas is being touted as the answer but with no new nukes and the death of coal the government is setting us up for a natural gas disaster when there isn't enough for heating and electricity, without even considering the environmental hazards associated which hydraulic fracturing. It would be great if the 30+ billion in taxpayer money created a viable renewable solution but its not even close.
                    A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by oruacat2 View Post
                      I'm done arguing about it - it won't change anything because the REAL money-grubbers in the fossil-fuel industry are so entrenched that they own our government.

                      But I'll say this - I'm glad I got to see some of this country's greatest national treasures before "the job creators" screw it all up for short-term profit - Glacier while there are still glaciers and the Grand Canyon before mining interests win their sought-after concessions, as but two examples.
                      I'm also glad I don't have kids, because I won't be the one explaining why we saw all this destruction coming and not only did nothing, we shouted-down, marginalized, and tried to destroy the reputations of the scientists who tried to warn us.
                      We've had a cooler-than-normal summer here in Kentucky, and that's great, but I'll bet my next paycheck that come December 31st 2013 will go down as another one of the warmer years on record, globally.
                      I'm done arguing it for the same reason you describe in your first sentence as it pertains to climate scientists.

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                      • #41
                        I know this is weather and not necessarily climate change but I just wanted to post the next 2 week forecast that looks chilly willy. Pack the long-johns!



                        A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in

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                        • #42
                          http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/snowy_owl_invasion_puzzles_sci/21127590[/url]

                          Beautiful animals, anyone catch a picture of one of these magnificent birds?

                          I haven't seen one, are the eyes perhaps photo shopped in this pic?
                          [url]
                          A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in

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                          • #43
                            Can't find the link however...had a pair of Snowy Owls hanging out two years in a row on a Western slope of the Sauquoit Valley. Haven't seen them this year, yet.
                            "A culture is no better than its woods." W.H. Auden

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Pumpkin QAAD View Post
                              http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/env...cientists.html

                              Break out your snowshoes and sub-zero bag for the next couple of decades....
                              I'm about to put both back in the closet.
                              This winter is certainly not living up to expectations!

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Justin View Post
                                I'm about to put both back in the closet.
                                This winter is certainly not living up to expectations!
                                I was starting to believe the predictions when I was skiing through the woods over Thanksgiving vacation... but now I really have my doubts

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