Adirondack Forum  
Rules Membership Donations and Online Store Adkhighpeaks Foundation ADKhighpeaks Forums ADKhighpeaks Wiki Disclaimer

Go Back   Adirondack Forum > Current Affairs and Environmental Issues > Environmental Issues
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-10-2013, 06:19 AM   #21
Neil
Kayak-46
 
Neil's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,853
Maybe a wicked cold winter will kill of some Lyme's, Asian Beetles and a few other unwelcome "intruders".

Random's post reminded me that stats are like a bikini. They reveal enough to be interesting but they hide the essentials.
__________________
The best, the most successful adventurer, is the one having the most fun.
Neil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 09:39 AM   #22
Pumpkin QAAD
Whachu talking about
 
Pumpkin QAAD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by randomscooter View Post
Nor am I. Cooling can be just cooling, or cooling can be part of warming.



All this because the Earth is a complex negative feedback system that will attempt to counter the effects of global warming by tapping into it's own air conditioning system (i.e., the ice caps) and distributing that cool air to places that need it. So short-term cooling can be part of the trend.

Problem is that when the AC runs out of coolant it may not be possible to keep things cool anymore.

As for a 60% increase in the Arctic ice cap, such an increase would be easier to accomplish when the ice cap is severely decimated rather than when it's already at full extent. I.e., it's a lot easier for me to increase the amount of ice in my ice cube bucket when the bucket is empty than when the bucket is already full.

I turn on the ice cube maker when the bucket is getting empty so I'll have a reserve on hand when it comes time to prepare my favorite adult beverage. The Earth turns on it's ice maker when it's bucket is getting low so it will have a reserve on hand when things start getting too hot.
Your bucket also freezes a lot faster when it's cold out. The earth isn't using the arctic ice cap as a cooling reserve, the ice cap is a reflection of temperatures, particularly in the northern most part of the northern hemisphere. Look what a late winter and cool summer has done. What would 3 years of extreme (yet statistically possible!) cold do to the ice caps (Hint: see 1979)?

I am firmly of the opinion that cold weather is coming, "or above the mean reversion" as the scientists apparantly like to use. We won't see the anomalously cold weather that we saw in 1977-1979 that created these impressive global warming statistics, but real winter is coming!
__________________
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in
Pumpkin QAAD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 09:59 AM   #23
Neil
Kayak-46
 
Neil's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,853
Ya know, if the planet does enter into say, a 10-20 year cooling period and the temps drop significantly there will be some very serious consequences for human-kind.

It is difficult to grow food when it's cold out. Famine, disease, pestilence and massive social upheaval on scales never before imagined or experienced would be a best-case scenario.

"It will be a chilly day for Willy when the mercury goes down".
__________________
The best, the most successful adventurer, is the one having the most fun.
Neil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 10:11 AM   #24
Pumpkin QAAD
Whachu talking about
 
Pumpkin QAAD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil View Post
Ya know, if the planet does enter into say, a 10-20 year cooling period and the temps drop significantly there will be some very serious consequences for human-kind.

It is difficult to grow food when it's cold out. Famine, disease, pestilence and massive social upheaval on scales never before imagined or experienced would be a best-case scenario.

"It will be a chilly day for Willy when the mercury goes down".
We've joked about the Mycenean warming period but remember throughout history fluctuation in the environment is the primary cause of social upheaval and the collapse of civilizations. Followed closely by religion, but I digress.

We have abundant food, plentiful natural resources and a diverse relatively peaceful coexisting society, what could possibly go wrong?
__________________
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in
Pumpkin QAAD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 12:42 PM   #25
cityboy
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 553
This graph illustrates the cycles since the end of the little ice age and also "predicts" a downward reversion to the mean. Perhaps this is what the article is refering to.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpre...asofu_ipcc.jpg
cityboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 01:18 PM   #26
l'oiseau
**BANNED**
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 1,154
Doomsday Soothsayers...

If you think you can predict the change in the climate then I'd say get your lottery ticket now, you must have some sort of psychic ability.
l'oiseau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 02:51 PM   #27
redhawk
Senior Resident Curmudgeon
 
redhawk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: In My Memories
Posts: 10,932
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil View Post
Ya know, if the planet does enter into say, a 10-20 year cooling period and the temps drop significantly there will be some very serious consequences for human-kind.

It is difficult to grow food when it's cold out. Famine, disease, pestilence and massive social upheaval on scales never before imagined or experienced would be a best-case scenario.

"It will be a chilly day for Willy when the mercury goes down".
Actually,disease and pestilence would be more abundant in warming than in cooling. My culture considers winter a "healing season" because it kills many of the bad things.
__________________
"If future generations are to remember us with gratitude rather than contempt, we must leave them more than the miracles of technology. We must leave them a glimpse of the world as it was in the beginning, not just after we got through with it." Lyndon B. Johnson
redhawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2013, 03:23 PM   #28
Neil
Kayak-46
 
Neil's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by redhawk View Post
Actually,disease and pestilence would be more abundant in warming than in cooling. My culture considers winter a "healing season" because it kills many of the bad things.
Not talking about winter. Thinking of daytime highs of 40 in July.
Quote:
Perhaps the most famous pandemic of all time is the Black Death. It broke out in Crimea in 1346 and soon spread across Europe. The Black Death broke out at the worst possible time. In the early 14th century the climate of the earth was growing colder. This Global cooling was disastrous. It brought famine and poverty and the population was falling even before the plague struck. However it was decimated by the Black Death.
The cool, wet weather supposedly is what resulted in the plague gaining traction so swiftly. Crowding didn't help nor did the fact that hygiene was non-existent back then either.
__________________
The best, the most successful adventurer, is the one having the most fun.
Neil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2013, 09:04 AM   #29
Pumpkin QAAD
Whachu talking about
 
Pumpkin QAAD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,324
Worth a read if you have a moment

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoce...hermal_Maximum
__________________
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in
Pumpkin QAAD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2013, 10:29 AM   #30
Hobbitling
spring fever
 
Hobbitling's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Rochester area
Posts: 2,236
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum took 20,000 years to change the climate by 6 degrees. Climate scientists are predicting that level of change in a century or two.

20,000 years is enough time for entire biomes to shift thousands of miles. It's enough time for plant species to spread into new areas and be extirpated from other areas. And even then many species went extinct (although not enough to call it a true mass extinction). It's slow enough for new species to evolve to adapt to new niches.

A few decades, or centuries even, (which is what we're dealing with now) is not nearly enough time for those very slow range shifts and evolutionary adaptations to occur.
__________________
He found himself wondering at times, especially in the autumn, about the wild lands, and strange visions of mountains that he had never seen came into his dreams.
Hobbitling is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2013, 11:03 AM   #31
Pumpkin QAAD
Whachu talking about
 
Pumpkin QAAD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Hobbit View Post
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum took 20,000 years to change the climate by 6 degrees. Climate scientists are predicting that level of change in a century or two.

20,000 years is enough time for entire biomes to shift thousands of miles. It's enough time for plant species to spread into new areas and be extirpated from other areas. And even then many species went extinct (although not enough to call it a true mass extinction). It's slow enough for new species to evolve to adapt to new niches.

A few decades, or centuries even, (which is what we're dealing with now) is not nearly enough time for those very slow range shifts and evolutionary adaptations to occur.
(I added the emphasis)

I posted that article in regards to the massive extinctions involved in that epic climate change event.

Regardless, if you [cherry pick] extrapolate a tiny piece of data a.k.a. the weather change from 1979-2012 and apply it forward you will get absurd predictions.

Being relatively inexperienced at science perhaps this case is different but it reminds me of the dot.com bubble. Sure it's high priced base on p/e or p/s (or the famous p/ebitda) but if you extrapolate revenue growth over the last 10 years and apply it forward 100 years, the stock is cheap.
__________________
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in
Pumpkin QAAD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2013, 11:40 AM   #32
TCD
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,501
The dot.com reference is a good hint as to what's really going on here. Here's another hint: "Follow the money."
TCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2013, 03:27 PM   #33
Hobbitling
spring fever
 
Hobbitling's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Rochester area
Posts: 2,236
I agree that the choice of 1979-2012 seems somewhat arbitrary, but they use 1979 because that's when NOAA satellites first began carrying climate observation instruments that could measure things like ice extent and thickness, as well as atmospheric temperatures on a global scale. It's not cherry picking, it's actually an attempt to use as much data as there is available.

Here's another pretty comprehensive page with lots of nifty data.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
__________________
He found himself wondering at times, especially in the autumn, about the wild lands, and strange visions of mountains that he had never seen came into his dreams.
Hobbitling is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2013, 04:18 PM   #34
cityboy
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by TCD View Post
The dot.com reference is a good hint as to what's really going on here. Here's another hint: "Follow the money."
When all is said and done this will rival the Tulip mania.
cityboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 12:00 PM   #35
poconoron
Backcountry Wanderer
 
poconoron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pocono Mts, Pa. and Adirondacks
Posts: 798
Global warming - the extremely inexact {cough,cough}"science":

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...485712464.html
__________________
Ahh............Wilderness.......
poconoron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 01:03 PM   #36
Paleofreak
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 35
As I see it on one side you have fossil fuels and on the other side you have alternative energy sources.

With fossil fuels you get mercury, acid rain, pit mining, mountain topping, water pollution, air pollution, etc.

On the other side you have some resource extraction issues.

Look at those two lists. If you don't see a problem with our current energy supply I don't know what to say.


Also it is important to note that the early sea ice extent means nearly nothing, because much of the ice in the Arctic is thousands of years old and very thick, compared to the thin year old ice. Ice volume is a much more accurate measure of ice cap health.


This totally ignores the FACT that we are looking at faster sea level rise, temperature rise, and ice withdraw than any measurable time in the history of Earth. Its very hard to realize the length of geologic time versus the length of human time. to would take 1000s generations to live from the beginning to the end of other "sudden" geologic events (ie mass extinctions) and were seeing them in 10.
Paleofreak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2013, 01:51 PM   #37
l'oiseau
**BANNED**
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 1,154
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paleofreak View Post
This totally ignores the FACT that we are looking at faster sea level rise, temperature rise, and ice withdraw than any measurable time in the history of Earth. Its very hard to realize the length of geologic time versus the length of human time. to would take 1000s generations to live from the beginning to the end of other "sudden" geologic events (ie mass extinctions) and were seeing them in 10.
While I don't disagree with what your first part of the post (although some stuff may have been left out on the alternative energy side)...

How is this FACT?

As far as I know, we have NO specific data with any certainty that can prove this 'sudden' change in temperature has not happened hundreds, if not thousands of times before.

Our certainty for anything in the past in on orders of thousands of years usually, maybe hundreds in some cases. We are talking about a total span of recorded data of about 120 years. How, in any way, can we be sure about this trend? There is insufficient data and as I will reiterate, NO MODEL, which can predict weather or climate change on any scale with any deal of precision.

It isn't the fault of science. Science only acts to come up with models or explanations based on observation. The observation period is too short for any real TRUTH to be drawn about what will happen in the next 120 years.
l'oiseau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 06:28 PM   #38
oruacat2
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 73
I'm done arguing about it - it won't change anything because the REAL money-grubbers in the fossil-fuel industry are so entrenched that they own our government.

But I'll say this - I'm glad I got to see some of this country's greatest national treasures before "the job creators" screw it all up for short-term profit - Glacier while there are still glaciers and the Grand Canyon before mining interests win their sought-after concessions, as but two examples.
I'm also glad I don't have kids, because I won't be the one explaining why we saw all this destruction coming and not only did nothing, we shouted-down, marginalized, and tried to destroy the reputations of the scientists who tried to warn us.
We've had a cooler-than-normal summer here in Kentucky, and that's great, but I'll bet my next paycheck that come December 31st 2013 will go down as another one of the warmer years on record, globally.
oruacat2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2013, 09:39 PM   #39
Pumpkin QAAD
Whachu talking about
 
Pumpkin QAAD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,324
I hear ya, whenever I have to explain to my daughter how The "Dinos" died I blame global warming scientists for not warning them soon enough.

Isn't the mining in the Grand Canyon for uranium?

While I would love to live without energy I don't see how we can all become Amish, but I certainly respect those that do.

Any solution needs to balance a lot of factors, with conservation being the key. Right now natural gas is being touted as the answer but with no new nukes and the death of coal the government is setting us up for a natural gas disaster when there isn't enough for heating and electricity, without even considering the environmental hazards associated which hydraulic fracturing. It would be great if the 30+ billion in taxpayer money created a viable renewable solution but its not even close.
__________________
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they never shall sit in
Pumpkin QAAD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2013, 05:04 AM   #40
rollinslover64
Member
 
rollinslover64's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 369
Quote:
Originally Posted by oruacat2 View Post
I'm done arguing about it - it won't change anything because the REAL money-grubbers in the fossil-fuel industry are so entrenched that they own our government.

But I'll say this - I'm glad I got to see some of this country's greatest national treasures before "the job creators" screw it all up for short-term profit - Glacier while there are still glaciers and the Grand Canyon before mining interests win their sought-after concessions, as but two examples.
I'm also glad I don't have kids, because I won't be the one explaining why we saw all this destruction coming and not only did nothing, we shouted-down, marginalized, and tried to destroy the reputations of the scientists who tried to warn us.
We've had a cooler-than-normal summer here in Kentucky, and that's great, but I'll bet my next paycheck that come December 31st 2013 will go down as another one of the warmer years on record, globally.
I'm done arguing it for the same reason you describe in your first sentence as it pertains to climate scientists.
rollinslover64 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

DISCLAIMER: Use of these forums, and information found herein, is at your own risk. Use of this site by members and non-members alike is only granted by the adkhighpeak.com administration provided the terms and conditions found in the FULL DISCLAIMER have been read. Continued use of this site implies that you have read, understood and agree to the terms and conditions of this site. Any questions can be directed to the Administrator of this site.