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#361 | |
Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
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Quote:
Dr. Robert Stavins: "Several of the CLAs present with me in Berlin commented that given the nature and outcome of the week, the resulting document should probably be called the Summary BY Policymakers, rather than the Summary FOR Policymakers." |
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#362 | |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
Scientists form hypotheses and put them to the test. Some of these hypotheses turn out to be incorrect, or in need of refinement. Even the ones that seem to be correct are further examined and refined. Scientists do not bury their mistakes, they document them so that the path they traveled will be recorded for future evaluation. That future evaluation may find that the original hypothesis was in fact incorrect and should be discarded. Or it may find, as the science and understanding develops, that the original hypothesis was on the right track. The failures do not diminish the credibility of the successes. The failures do not tarnish the entire body of knowledge. So good science documents all it's successes and failures, without bias. In the context of the current discussion, a 1500+ page documentation of the current state of climate science is not tarnished because the scientists have acknowledged within that a small percentage of their hypotheses are not panning out. Indeed, the body of knowledge is enhanced by this acknowledgement because it demonstrates the absence of bias.
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ |
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#363 | |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ |
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#364 |
Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
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Ok, the following brief article shows that exactly half of the "human induced" warming period (1979-2013) as measured by satellites is flat. Shall we go for best two out of 3?
http://www.thegwpf.org/milestone-rea...ellite-record/ |
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#365 | |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
I initially thought it a ludicrous notion to read it. But then I realized I have three 1000 page books on my nightstand, the first of which I'm well into. Heck, if I'm not scared off by that then why would a 1500 page scientific document scare me off? Heck, it might even be interesting and informative!
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ |
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#366 | |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
Does the article explain the sudden (i.e., "instant") 0.2+ degree temperature increase in 1997?
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ Last edited by randomscooter; 04-27-2014 at 10:08 AM.. |
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#367 | |
Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
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Quote:
To be fair we need to look at the next 17 years for the validation process. As I said its best 2 out of 3, winner take all. ![]() |
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#368 | ||
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
First, it is not physically possible to have a 0.2 degree instantaneous step change in temperature. Any methodology (if you can call it that) that allows for step changes in continuously variable functions (such as temperature change) is invalid. The methodology used to "fit" these curves to the data is scientifically/mathematically unsound. Even if the authors of this graph had avoided the above obvious criticism by putting a very steep (but non-vertical) line between the other two lines, the phenomenon could not be explained by El Nino. Even if an El Nino effect could raise the temperature by 0.2 degrees over a short period of time, it's effects would be temporary. The temperature would settle back down to where it was before the El Nino (From looking at the graph I would guess that the spike in the 97-98 timeframe was caused by an El Nino). If that were not the case then each successive El Nino would ratchet up the temperature by some value (such as 0.2 degrees), then the temperature would hold, then the next El Nino would ratchet the temperature up again, etc, etc. THAT my friend would be a very serious problem. Fortunately the real world doesn't work that way. How many El Ninos were there from 1997 to 2010? Why didn't they ratchet up the temperature like the one in 1997 supposedly did? Ain't gonna happen. Please read this for a better understanding of El Ninos. One fact pulled from the above: Quote:
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ Last edited by randomscooter; 04-27-2014 at 10:40 AM.. |
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#369 |
spring fever
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Rochester area
Posts: 2,236
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Maybe we should stop feeding the troll
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He found himself wondering at times, especially in the autumn, about the wild lands, and strange visions of mountains that he had never seen came into his dreams. |
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#370 |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Let's go a bit further with the El Nino explanation.
The counterpart to an El Nino is La Nina, which will drive a decrease in temperatures and thereby counteract the El Nino increases in temperatures. So, let's assume that the graph you provided is correct. If so, then that would imply that the La Ninas that have occurred subsequent to the late 1990's timeframe were ineffective in driving the temperature back down. That would imply that something else was happening to prevent the normal La Nina outcome. The best explanation I can come up with for that "something else" would be run-away global warming. Now I'm not saying I believe the above paragraph, because I started with an assumption that is incorrect. But IF that assumption was correct (which is what your "El Nino did it" explanation implies) then the global warming problem would be even worse than I thought.
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ |
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#371 |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Even if he's a troll and not just a duped follower of the loony fringe deniers, he's a useful troll. At least I do hope that the time I've spent explaining some stuff will be useful to those who actually are trying to understand this rather large problem. And his unsupportable statements do a good job of crushing the credibility (not that there is any) of the deniers.
And frankly, I disagree with the position that someone who disagrees enthusiastically is a troll. He may be, but from where I stand I'm not seeing it.
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ Last edited by randomscooter; 04-27-2014 at 10:58 AM.. |
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#372 | |
Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
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Quote:
Now let's take the gloves off and you give me your best shot as to why there was a big jump in 1998. Enlighten me. When you're done, follow this link and tell me 1) how is 1998 any different from the previous big ups and downs since the late 1800's and 2) what would cause them? It wouldn't happen to be natural variation would it? http://climate4you.com/ Click on "the big picture" and scroll down to the 1850 graph. |
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#373 | |
Native Earthling
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scooterville, NY
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
![]() You've lost my attention. Adios.
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Scooting here and there Through the woods and up the peaks Random Scoots awaits (D.P.) "Pushing the limits of easy."™ |
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#374 | |
Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
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Quote:
And since you distrust them why don't you use their program to double check them or better yet use another dataset for example Hadcrut 3 or 4. Why do you and vtflyfish deny that there is a pause since 1997. Its common knowledge and even the IPCC acknowledges it. |
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#375 |
Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 573
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#376 |
Kayak-46
![]() Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,993
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The best, the most successful adventurer, is the one having the most fun. |
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